1, Imfuno yokuphela kwe-Photovoltaic: Imfuno yomthamo we-photovoltaic efakiweyo yomelele, kwaye imfuno yepolysilicon iyatshintshwa ngokusekelwe kuqikelelo lomthamo ofakiweyo.
1.1.Ukusetyenziswa kwePolysilicon: Ihlabathi jikeleleumthamo wokusetyenziswa uyanda ngokuthe ngcembe, ngokukodwa ukuveliswa kwamandla e-photovoltaic
Kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo, ihlabathipolysiliconUkusetyenziswa kuye kwaqhubeka nokunyuka, kwaye umlinganiselo weChina uye waqhubeka nokwandisa, ekhokelwa yi-photovoltaic industry.Ukususela ngo-2012 ukuya ku-2021, ukusetyenziswa kwe-polysilicon yehlabathi jikelele kubonisa ukunyuka, ukunyuka ukusuka kwiitoni ezingama-237,000 ukuya kwi-653,000 yeetoni.Kwi-2018, umgaqo-nkqubo omtsha we-photovoltaic we-China we-531 waziswa, owanciphisa ngokucacileyo umlinganiselo wenkxaso-mali yokuvelisa amandla e-photovoltaic.Umthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa wehla nge-18% ngonyaka, kwaye imfuno yepolysilicon yachaphazeleka.Ukususela ngo-2019, urhulumente uye wazisa inani lemigaqo-nkqubo yokukhuthaza ukulingana kwegridi ye-photovoltaics.Ngophuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini le-photovoltaic, imfuno yepolysilicon nayo ingene kwixesha lokukhula ngokukhawuleza.Ngeli xesha, umlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa kwe-polysilicon yaseTshayina ekusetyenzisweni kwehlabathi jikelele kwaqhubeka ukunyuka, ukusuka kwi-61.5% ngo-2012 ukuya kwi-93.9% ngo-2021, ngokukodwa ngenxa yoshishino lwe-photovoltaic olukhula ngokukhawuleza lwaseChina.Ngokombono wepateni yokusetyenziswa kwehlabathi kweentlobo ezahlukeneyo ze-polysilicon ngo-2021, izinto ze-silicon ezisetyenziselwa iiseli ze-photovoltaic ziya kwenza i-94% ubuncinane, apho i-polysilicon ye-solar-grade kunye ne-silicon granular i-91% kunye ne-3%, ngokulandelanayo, ngelixa. Ipolysilicon yodidi lwe-elektroniki enokuthi isetyenziswe kwiiakhawunti zeetships ezingama-94%.Umlinganiselo ngu-6%, obonisa ukuba imfuno yangoku yepolysilicon ilawulwa yi-photovoltaics.Kulindeleke ukuba ngokufudumala komgaqo-nkqubo we-carbon-carbon, imfuno ye-photovoltaic efakwe amandla iya kuba namandla, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kunye nomlinganiselo we-polysilicon ye-solar-grade iya kuqhubeka nokunyuka.
1.2.I-Silicon wafer: i-monocrystalline silicon wafer ithatha eyona nto iphambili, kwaye itekhnoloji yeCzochralski eqhubekayo ikhula ngokukhawuleza.
Ikhonkco elisezantsi elithe ngqo le-polysilicon zii-wafers ze-silicon, kwaye i-China ngoku ilawula imarike ye-silicon wafer yehlabathi.Ukusukela ngo-2012 ukuya ku-2021, amandla okuvelisa i-silicon ye-silicon yehlabathi kunye nemveliso iqhubekile isanda, kwaye imboni ye-photovoltaic iqhubekile nokukhula.Ii-Silicon wafers zisebenza njengebhulorho edibanisa izixhobo ze-silicon kunye neebhetri, kwaye akukho mthwalo kumthamo wemveliso, ngoko iyaqhubeka itsala inani elikhulu leenkampani ukuba zingene kwishishini.Ngo-2021, abavelisi be-silicon bandise kakhuluimvelisoumthamo ukuya kwi-213.5GW imveliso, eqhube imveliso ye-silicon ye-wafer yehlabathi ukuba inyuke ukuya kwi-215.4GW.Ngokomthamo okhoyo kunye nosanda ukwanda kwemveliso e-China, kulindeleke ukuba izinga lokukhula lonyaka ligcine i-15-25% kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, kwaye imveliso ye-wafer yase-China iya kuhlala ibambe isikhundla esiphezulu kwihlabathi.
I-silicon ye-polycrystalline inokwenziwa kwii-ingots ze-polycrystalline silicon okanye i-monocrystalline silicon rods.Inkqubo yokuvelisa i-polycrystalline silicon ingots ikakhulu ibandakanya indlela yokuphosa kunye nendlela yokunyibilika ngokuthe ngqo.Okwangoku, uhlobo lwesibini yindlela ephambili, kwaye izinga lelahleko ligcinwa ngokusisiseko malunga ne-5%.Indlela yokuphosa ikakhulu kukunyibilikisa imathiriyeli ye-silicon kwi-crucible kuqala, kwaye emva koko uyiphose kwenye i-crucible eshushu ngaphambili yokupholisa.Ngokulawula isantya sokupholisa, i-polycrystalline ingot yesilicon iphoswa bubuchwephesha bokuqina.Inkqubo yokutshisa i-melting yendlela yokuncibilika ngokuthe ngqo iyafana nendlela yokuphosa, apho i-polysilicon inyibilika ngokuthe ngqo kwi-crucible yokuqala, kodwa inyathelo lokupholisa lihluke kwindlela yokuphosa.Nangona ezi ndlela zimbini zifana kakhulu ngendalo, indlela yokunyibilika ngokuthe ngqo idinga kuphela i-crucible enye, kwaye imveliso ye-polysilicon eveliswayo inomgangatho omhle, okhuthaza ukukhula kwe-polycrystalline silicon ingots kunye nokuqhelaniswa okungcono, kwaye inkqubo yokukhula ilula i-automate, enokwenza indawo yangaphakathi yokunciphisa Impazamo yekristale.Okwangoku, amashishini ahamba phambili kwishishini lezinto zamandla elanga ngokuqhelekileyo asebenzisa indlela yokunyibilika ngokuthe ngqo ukwenza i-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon, kunye nekhabhoni kunye ne-oksijeni iziqulatho ziphantsi, ezilawulwa ngaphantsi kwe-10ppma kunye ne-16ppma.Kwixesha elizayo, imveliso ye-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon isaya kulawulwa yindlela yokuncibilika ngokuthe ngqo, kwaye izinga lokulahleka liya kuhlala lijikeleze i-5% kwiminyaka emihlanu.
Ukuveliswa kweentonga ze-silicon ze-monocrystalline ngokuyinhloko kusekelwe kwindlela ye-Czochralski, eyongezwa yindlela yokunyibilikisa indawo yokumisa i-vertical suspension, kwaye iimveliso eziveliswa zimbini zineendlela ezahlukeneyo zokusebenzisa.Indlela yeCzochralski isebenzisa ukuxhathisa kwegraphite ukutshisa i-polycrystalline silicon kwi-quartz crucible ephezulu-yobunyulu kwi-thermal system ethe ngqo ukuyinyibilikisa, emva koko ufake ikristale yembewu kumphezulu wokunyibilika ukuze udityaniswe, kwaye ujikelezise ikristale yembewu ngelixa uguqula i-crucible., ikristale yembewu iphakanyiselwa phezulu, kwaye i-silicon ye-monocrystalline ifumaneka kwiinkqubo zembewu, ukukhulisa, ukujika kwamagxa, ukukhula okulinganayo kobubanzi, kunye nokugqiba.Indlela yokunyibilikisa indawo edadayo ethe nkqo ibhekiselele ekulungiseni izinto ze-polycrystalline ezinyulu eziphakamileyo kwigumbi lesithando somlilo, ukuhambisa ikhoyili yentsimbi kancinci kancinci ecaleni kwendlela yobude bepolycrystalline kwaye udlule kwikholamu yepolycrystalline, kwaye ugqithise irediyo yamandla aphezulu ngoku kwintsimbi. ikhoyili ukwenza Inxalenye yangaphakathi ye-polycrystalline intsika ikhoyili iyanyibilika, kwaye emva kokuba ikhoyili isusiwe, inyibilika iphinda idibanise ukwenza ikristale enye.Ngenxa yeenkqubo ezahlukeneyo zemveliso, kukho umahluko kwizixhobo zokuvelisa, iindleko zemveliso kunye nomgangatho wemveliso.Okwangoku, iimveliso ezifunyenwe ngendlela yokunyibilika kwendawo zinokucoceka okuphezulu kwaye zingasetyenziselwa ukwenziwa kwezixhobo ze-semiconductor, ngelixa indlela yeCzochralski inokuhlangabezana neemeko zokuvelisa i-silicon eyodwa ye-crystal yeeseli ze-photovoltaic kwaye inexabiso eliphantsi, ngoko kunjalo. indlela eqhelekileyo.Ngo-2021, isabelo semarike yendlela yokutsala ngokuthe tye malunga ne-85%, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba inyuke kancinci kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo.Izabelo zemarike kwi-2025 kunye ne-2030 ziqikelelwa ukuba ziyi-87% kunye ne-90% ngokulandelanayo.Ngokubhekiselele kwisithili sokunyibilika kwesilicon enye yekristale, imboniselo yesithili yokunyibilika kwesilicon enye iphezulu kakhulu kwihlabathi.ukufumana), TOPSIL (Denmark) .Kwixesha elizayo, isikali semveliso ye-silicon enye etyhidiweyo yekristale ayizukwanda kakhulu.Isizathu sesokuba iitekhnoloji ezinxulumene neTshayina zibuyile ngasemva xa zithelekiswa neJapan kunye neJamani, ngakumbi umthamo wezixhobo zokufudumeza ezisebenza rhoqo kunye neemeko zenkqubo yecrystallization.Itekhnoloji ye-silicon edityanisiweyo yekristale enye kwindawo enkulu yobubanzi ifuna ukuba amashishini aseTshayina aqhubeke nokuzihlola ngokwawo.
Indlela yeCzochralski inokwahlulwa ibe yitekhnoloji yokutsala ikristale eqhubekayo (CCZ) kunye neteknoloji yokutsala ikristale ephindaphindiweyo (RCZ).Okwangoku, indlela engundoqo kushishino yi-RCZ, ekwinqanaba lotshintsho ukusuka kwi-RCZ ukuya kwi-CCZ.I-crystal eyodwa yokutsala kunye namanyathelo okutya kwe-RZC izimeleyo enye kwenye.Ngaphambi kokutsalwa ngakunye, i-ingot yekristale enye kufuneka ipholiswe kwaye isuswe kwigumbi lesango, ngelixa i-CCZ inokuqonda ukondla kunye nokunyibilika ngelixa itsala.I-RCZ ikhulile ngokwentelekiso, kwaye kukho indawo encinane yokuphuculwa kobuchwepheshe kwixesha elizayo;ngelixa i-CCZ ineenzuzo zokunciphisa iindleko kunye nokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle, kwaye ikwinqanaba lophuhliso olukhawulezayo.Ngokweendleko, xa kuthelekiswa ne-RCZ, ethatha malunga neeyure ze-8 ngaphambi kokuba kutsalwe intonga enye, i-CCZ inokuphucula kakhulu ukusebenza kakuhle kwemveliso, ukunciphisa iindleko ze-crucible kunye nokusetyenziswa kwamandla ngokuphelisa eli nyathelo.Iyonke imveliso yesithando somlilo esinye ingaphezulu kwe-20% ngaphezulu kwe-RCZ.Iindleko zemveliso zingaphezulu kwe-10% ngaphantsi kwe-RCZ.Ngokumalunga nokusebenza kakuhle, i-CCZ inokugqiba umzobo we-8-10 ye-crystal crystal rods ngaphakathi komjikelezo wobomi be-crucible (iiyure ezingama-250), ngelixa i-RCZ inokugqiba kuphela malunga ne-4, kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kwemveliso kunokunyuswa nge-100-150% .Ngokomgangatho, i-CCZ ine-resistiveivity efanayo ngakumbi, umxholo we-oksijini ophantsi, kunye nokuqokelela kancinci kokungcola kwesinyithi, ngoko ke ifaneleke ngakumbi ukulungiswa kwe-n-type ye-crystal crystal wafers, ekwakwixesha lophuhliso olukhawulezayo.Okwangoku, ezinye iinkampani zaseTshayina ziye zabhengeza ukuba zineteknoloji yeCCZ , kwaye indlela ye-silicon-CCZ-n-type ye-silicon ye-monocrystalline wafers icacile ngokusisiseko, kwaye sele iqalise ukusebenzisa i-100% ye-silicon ye-granular..Kwixesha elizayo, i-CCZ iza kuthatha indawo ye-RCZ, kodwa iya kuthatha inkqubo ethile.
Inkqubo yokuvelisa i-monocrystalline wafers silicon yahlulwe ngamanyathelo amane: ukutsala, ukusika, ukusika, ukucoca kunye nokuhlelwa.Ukuvela kwendlela yokuqhawula ucingo lwedayimani kuye kwanciphisa kakhulu izinga lokulahleka kwe-slicing.Inkqubo yokutsala ikristale ichazwe ngasentla.Inkqubo yokunqunqa ibandakanya ukunqunyulwa kwe-truncation, i-squaring, kunye nokusebenza kwe-chamfering.Ukusika kukusebenzisa umatshini wokusika ukusika i-silicon ye-columnar ibe ngamaqhekeza e-silicon.Ukucoca kunye nokuhlelwa ngamanyathelo okugqibela ekuvelisweni kwee-silicone wafers.Indlela yokuqhawula ucingo lwedayimani ineenzuzo ezicacileyo ngaphezu kwendlela yokuqhawula intambo yodaka, ebonakaliswa ngokusetyenziswa kwexesha elifutshane kunye nelahleko ephantsi.Isantya socingo lwedayimani siphindwe kahlanu kunelo lokusika ngokwesiko.Ngokomzekelo, ukusika i-wafer enye, ukusika ucingo lwendabuko kuthatha malunga neeyure ezili-10, kwaye ukusika ucingo lwedayimane kuthatha malunga neeyure ezi-2 kuphela.Ilahleko yokusikwa kocingo lwedayimani nayo incinci ngokwentelekiso, kwaye umaleko womonakalo obangelwe kukusikwa kocingo lwedayimani uncinci kunolo lokusikwa kocingo lodaka, olunceda ukusika ii-wafers zesilicon ezibhityileyo.Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ukuze kuncitshiswe ilahleko yokusika kunye neendleko zemveliso, iinkampani zijike kwiindlela zokusika iintambo zedayimani, kwaye ububanzi beebhasi zedayimani zebhasi ziya zisiba sezantsi naphantsi.Ngo-2021, ububanzi be-diamond wire busbar iya kuba yi-43-56 μm, kwaye ububanzi be-diamond wire busbar esetyenziselwa i-monocrystalline silicon wafers iya kuncipha kakhulu kwaye iqhubeke iyancipha.Kuqikelelwa ukuba ngo-2025 kunye no-2030, iidayamitha ze-diamond wire busbars ezisetyenziselwa ukusika i-monocrystalline silicon wafers iya kuba yi-36 μm kunye ne-33 μm, ngokulandelelana, kunye nobubanzi beebhasi ze-diamond ezisetyenziselwa ukusika ii-polycrystalline silicon wafers ziya kuba yi-51 μm. kunye ne-51 μm, ngokulandelelanayo.Oku kungenxa yokuba zininzi iziphene kunye nokungcola kwii-polycrystalline silicon wafers, kwaye iingcingo ezibhityileyo zinokwaphuka.Ke ngoko, ububanzi bebhasbar yocingo lwedayimani esetyenziselwa ukusika i-polycrystalline silicon wafer bukhulu kunobo be-monocrystalline silicon wafers, kwaye njengoko isabelo semarike se-polycrystalline silicon wafers sihla kancinci, sisetyenziselwa i-polycrystalline silicon Ukuncipha kobubanzi bedayimani. Iibhasi zeebhasi ezisikwe ngamaqhekeza ziye zacotha.
Okwangoku, iiwafers zesilicon zahlulwe kakhulu zaba ziindidi ezimbini: ii-polycrystalline silicon wafers kunye ne-monocrystalline silicon wafers.Ii-wafers ze-silicon ze-Monocrystalline zinezibonelelo zobomi benkonzo ende kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kokuguqulwa kweefoto zombane.Ii-polycrystalline silicon wafers zenziwe ngeenkozo zekristale ezinemikhombandlela eyahlukileyo yekristale yendiza, ngelixa ii-crystal silicon wafers zenziwa ngesilicon yepolycrystalline njengezinto ezikrwada kwaye zinembonakalo efanayo yecrystal plane.Ngenkangeleko, ii-polycrystalline silicon wafers kunye ne-crystal silicon wafers enye zibhlowu-mnyama kwaye zintsundu-mdaka.Ekubeni ezi zimbini zisikwe kwii-ingots ze-polycrystalline silicon kunye neentonga ze-silicon ze-monocrystalline, ngokulandelanayo, iimilo zisisikwere kunye ne-quasi-square.Ubomi benkonzo yee-polycrystalline silicon wafers kunye ne-monocrystalline silicon wafers malunga neminyaka engama-20.Ukuba indlela yokupakisha kunye nokusetyenziswa kwendawo ifanelekile, ubomi benkonzo bunokufikelela ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-25.Ngokubanzi, ixesha lokuphila kwee-monocrystalline silicon wafers lide kancinane kunolo lwee-polycrystalline silicon wafers.Ukongeza, ii-wafers ze-silicon ze-monocrystalline zikwangcono kancinci ekusebenzeni koguqulo lombane, kwaye ukuxinana kwazo kunye nokungcola kwentsimbi kuncinci kakhulu kunezo ze-polycrystalline silicon wafers.Isiphumo esidityanisiweyo sezinto ezahlukeneyo senza ukuba ubomi bomntu ophetheyo buncinci bekristale enye amaxesha amaninzi aphezulu kunolo lwe-polycrystalline silicon wafers.Ngaloo ndlela ibonisa inzuzo yoguqulo olusebenzayo.Ngo-2021, obona buchule buphezulu bokuguqulwa kwee-polycrystalline silicon wafers iya kuba malunga ne-21%, kwaye leyo ye-monocrystalline silicon wafers iya kufikelela kwi-24.2%.
Ukongeza kubomi obude kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kokuguqulwa, ii-wafers ze-silicon ze-monocrystalline nazo zinenzuzo yokunciphisa, okulungele ukunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwe-silicon kunye neendleko ze-silicon wafer, kodwa nikela ingqalelo ekunyukeni kwesantya sokuqhekeka.Ukucuthwa kweewafers zesilicon kunceda ekunciphiseni iindleko zokwenziwa, kwaye inkqubo yangoku yokunqunqa inokwanelisa ngokupheleleyo iimfuno zokubhitya, kodwa ubukhulu beewafers zesilicon kufuneka buhlangabezane neemfuno zeselfowuni esezantsi kunye nokuveliswa kwecandelo.Ngokubanzi, ubukhulu bee-silicon wafers buye buyehla kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kwaye ubukhulu be-polycrystalline silicon wafers bukhulu kakhulu kunobo be-monocrystalline silicon wafers.Iiwafers zesilicon zeMonocrystalline zohlulwa kwakhona zibe zii-n-type wafers silicon kunye ne-p-type wafers silicon, ngelixa i-n-type wafers yesilicon ikakhulu ibandakanya ukusetyenziswa kwebhetri ye-TOPCon kunye nokusetyenziswa kwebhetri ye-HJT.Ngo-2021, ubukhulu obuqhelekileyo be-polycrystalline silicon wafers yi-178μm, kwaye ukungabikho kwemfuno kwixesha elizayo kuya kubaqhuba ukuba baqhubeke bencinci.Ngoko ke, kuqikelelwa ukuba ubukhulu buya kuncipha kancane ukusuka kwi-2022 ukuya kwi-2024, kwaye ubukhulu buya kuhlala malunga ne-170μm emva kwe-2025;umyinge wobukhulu be-p-uhlobo lwamaqhekeza e-silicon e-monocrystalline malunga ne-170μm, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba hle ukuya kwi-155μm kunye ne-140μm ngo-2025 no-2030. I-150μm, kunye nobukhulu obuyi-avareji bee-n-type ze-silicon ezisetyenziselwa iiseli ze-TOPCon yi-165μm.135μm.
Ukongeza, ukuveliswa kwee-polycrystalline silicon wafers kudla i-silicon ngaphezulu kune-monocrystalline silicon wafers, kodwa amanyathelo okuvelisa alula, okuzisa inzuzo yeendleko kwii-polycrystalline silicon wafers.I-silicon ye-polycrystalline, njengento eqhelekileyo ekrwada ye-polycrystalline silicon wafers kunye ne-monocrystalline silicon wafers, inokusetyenziswa okwahlukileyo kwimveliso yezi zimbini, ngenxa yokwahlukana kobunyulu kunye namanyathelo okuvelisa ezimbini.Ngo-2021, ukusetyenziswa kwe-silicon ye-polycrystalline ingot yi-1.10 kg / kg.Kulindeleke ukuba utyalo-mali oluncinci kuphando kunye nophuhliso luya kukhokelela kutshintsho oluncinci kwixesha elizayo.Ukusetyenziswa kwe-silicon yentonga yokutsala yi-1.066 kg / kg, kwaye kukho indawo ethile yokuphucula.Kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-1.05 kg / kg kunye ne-1.043 kg / kg kwi-2025 kunye ne-2030, ngokulandelanayo.Kwinkqubo yokutsalwa kwekristale enye, ukunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwe-silicon kwintonga yokutsala kunokufezekiswa ngokunciphisa ilahleko yokucocwa kunye nokutyumza, ukulawula ngokungqongqo indawo yokuvelisa, ukunciphisa umlinganiselo weeprimers, ukuphucula ulawulo oluchanekileyo, kunye nokwandisa ukuhlelwa. kunye netekhnoloji yokucubungula izinto ze-silicon ezonakeleyo.Nangona ukusetyenziswa kwe-silicon ye-polycrystalline silicon wafers iphezulu, ixabiso lokuvelisa i-polycrystalline silicon wafers liphezulu kakhulu ngenxa yokuba i-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon iveliswa yi-hot-melting ingot casting, ngelixa i-monocrystalline i-silicon ingots idla ngokuveliswa ngokukhula okucothayo kwiiCzochralski single crystal furnaces. edla amandla aphezulu ngokwentelekiso.Phantsi.Ngo-2021, i-avareji yeendleko zemveliso yee-monocrystalline silicon wafers ziya kuba malunga ne-0.673 yuan/W, kwaye ezo ze-polycrystalline silicon wafers ziya kuba yi-0.66 yuan/W.
Njengoko ubukhulu belitye le-silicon buya kuncipha kunye nobubanzi be-diamond wire busbar buncipha, ukuphuma kweentonga ze-silicon/ingots ezinobubanzi obulinganayo ngekhilogram nganye ziya kwanda, kwaye inani leentonga zecrystal enye zobunzima obufanayo ziya kuba phezulu kunoko. ye-polycrystalline ingots ye-silicon.Ngokubhekiselele kumandla, amandla asetyenziswa sisilutha se-silicon ngasinye siyahluka ngokohlobo kunye nobukhulu.Ngo-2021, imveliso ye-p-uhlobo lwe-166mm ubukhulu be-monocrystalline bars square imalunga namaqhekeza angama-64 ngekhilogram, kwaye imveliso ye-polycrystalline ingots square imalunga nama-59 amaqhekeza.Phakathi kwe-p-type ye-crystal crystal wafers, imveliso ye-158.75mm yesayizi ye-monocrystalline isquare rods imalunga nama-70 amaqhekeza ngekhilogram, imveliso ye-p-type ye-182mm ye-crystal square rods imalunga nama-53 ngekhilogram, kunye nemveliso ye-p -uhlobo 210mm ubungakanani iintonga crystal enye ikhilogram malunga 53 iziqwenga.Isiphumo sebar yesikwere simalunga namaqhekeza angama-40.Ukususela ngo-2022 ukuya ku-2030, ukucuthwa okuqhubekayo kwee-silicone wafers ngokungathandabuzekiyo kuya kukhokelela ekwandeni kwenani leentonga ze-silicon / iingots zomthamo ofanayo.Ubukhulu obuncinci be-diamond wire busbar kunye nobukhulu be-particle size siphinde sincede ukunciphisa ilahleko yokusika, ngokwandisa inani lee-wafers eziveliswayo.ubungakanani.Kuqikelelwa ukuba ngo-2025 kunye no-2030, imveliso ye-p-uhlobo lwe-166mm ubukhulu bentonga ye-monocrystalline square imalunga nama-71 kunye namaqhekeza angama-78 ngekhilogram, kwaye imveliso ye-polycrystalline ingots yesikwere imalunga nama-62 kunye namaqhekeza angama-62, ngenxa yemarike ephantsi. isabelo se-polycrystalline silicon wafers Kunzima ukubangela inkqubela phambili ebalulekileyo yezobuchwepheshe.Kukho iiyantlukwano kumandla eentlobo ezahlukeneyo kunye nobukhulu be-silicon wafers.Ngokwedatha yesibhengezo yamandla aphakathi kwe-158.75mm ye-silicon yafers imalunga ne-5.8W / isiqwenga, amandla aphakathi kwe-166mm ubukhulu be-silicon yafers malunga ne-6.25W / iqhekeza, kwaye amandla aphakathi kwe-182mm ye-silicon yafers malunga ne-6.25W / iqhekeza. .Amandla omndilili wesayizi ye-silicon wafer malunga ne-7.49W / iqhekeza, kwaye amandla aphakathi kwe-210mm yesayizi ye-silicon yafer imalunga ne-10W / iqhekeza.
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ii-silicon wafers ziye zakhula ngokuthe ngcembe kwicala lobukhulu obukhulu, kwaye ubungakanani obukhulu buyanceda ekwandiseni amandla etshiphu enye, ngaloo ndlela kuncitshiswa iindleko ezingezizo ii-silicon zeeseli.Nangona kunjalo, uhlengahlengiso lobungakanani be-silicon wafers kwakhona kufuneka luthathele ingqalelo imiba enyukayo kunye nesezantsi yokulinganisa kunye nemigangatho, ngakumbi umthwalo kunye nemiba ephezulu yangoku.Okwangoku, kukho iinkampu ezimbini kwimarike malunga nesalathiso sophuhliso lwexesha elizayo lobungakanani besilicon wafer, ezizezi 182mm ubukhulu kunye 210mm ubukhulu.Isiphakamiso se-182mm ngokuyinhloko sisuka kumbono wokuhlanganiswa kwemboniselo ethe nkqo, esekelwe ekuqwalaselweni kofakelo kunye nokuthuthwa kweeseli ze-photovoltaic, amandla kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kweemodyuli, kunye ne-synergy phakathi komlambo kunye nezantsi;ngelixa i-210mm ubukhulu becala isuka kumbono weendleko zemveliso kunye neendleko zenkqubo.Imveliso ye-210mm ye-silicon yafers yonyuke ngaphezu kwe-15% kwinkqubo yokuzoba intonga enye, ixabiso lokuvelisa ibhetri ezantsi lincitshiswe malunga ne-0.02 yuan/W, kwaye ixabiso lilonke lolwakhiwo lwesikhululo samandla lancitshiswa malunga ne-0.1 yuan/ W.Kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, kulindeleke ukuba ii-silicone wafers ezinobukhulu obungaphantsi kwe-166mm ziya kupheliswa ngokuthe ngcembe;Iingxaki zokumatanisa ezisuka phezulu nezisezantsi ze-210mm ze-silicon ziya kusonjululwa ngokuthe chu ngokusebenzayo, kwaye iindleko ziya kuba yinto ebaluleke ngakumbi echaphazela utyalo-mali kunye nokuveliswa kwamashishini.Ke ngoko, isabelo sentengiso yee-210mm ze-silicon wafers ziya kunyuka.Ukunyuka okuzinzileyo;I-182mm ye-silicon wafer iya kuba yisayizi yesiqhelo kwimarike ngenxa yeenzuzo zayo kwimveliso edibeneyo ethe nkqo, kodwa ngophuhliso lweteknoloji ye-210mm ye-silicon wafer application, i-182mm iya kuyinika indlela.Ukongeza, kunzima ukuba ii-wafers ezinkulu ze-silicon zisetyenziswe ngokubanzi kwimarike kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, kuba iindleko zabasebenzi kunye nomngcipheko wofakelo lwee-silicone wafers ezinkulu ziya kunyuka kakhulu, ekunzima ukupheliswa ukonga kwiindleko zemveliso kunye neendleko zenkqubo..Ngo-2021, ubukhulu be-silicon wafer kwimarike bubandakanya i-156.75mm, 157mm, 158.75mm, 166mm, 182mm, 210mm, njl. yehla ukuya kwi-5%, eya kutshintshwa ngokuthe ngcembe kwixesha elizayo;I-166mm yisisombululo esikhulu kunazo zonke esinokuphuculwa kumgca wokuvelisa ibhetri ekhoyo, eya kuba yisayizi enkulu kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo.Ngokumalunga nobukhulu benguqu, kulindeleke ukuba isabelo semarike siya kuba ngaphantsi kwe-2% kwi-2030;ubungakanani obudityanisiweyo be-182mm kunye ne-210mm buya kubalelwa kwi-45% ngo-2021, kwaye isabelo semarike siya kunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwixesha elizayo.Kulindeleke ukuba isabelo semarike siphelele kwi-2030 siya kudlula i-98%.
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, isabelo semakethi se-silicon ye-monocrystalline siqhubekile sikhula, kwaye sithathe indawo ephambili kwintengiso.Ukususela kwi-2012 ukuya kwi-2021, umlinganiselo we-silicon ye-monocrystalline wenyuka ukusuka ngaphantsi kwe-20% ukuya kwi-93.3%, ukwanda okukhulu.Ngo-2018, ii-silicon wafers kwimarike ikakhulu zii-polycrystalline silicon wafers, ezibalelwa ngaphezulu kwe-50%.Isizathu esona sizathu kukuba izibonelelo zobugcisa ze-monocrystalline silicon wafers azikwazi ukugubungela iindleko ezingalunganga.Ukusukela ngo-2019, njengoko uguqulo lweefoto zombane we-monocrystalline silicon wafers lugqithise kakhulu olo lwe-polycrystalline silicon wafers, kunye neendleko zokuvelisa ii-monocrystalline silicon wafers ziye zaqhubeka nokuhla ngenkqubela yetekhnoloji, isabelo sentengiso yee-monocrystalline silicon wafers siqhubekile nokukhula, sisiya sikhula. eyona nto iphambili kwimarike.imveliso.Kulindeleke ukuba umlinganiselo we-monocrystalline wafers we-silicon uya kufikelela malunga ne-96% ngo-2025, kwaye isabelo semarike se-monocrystalline silicon wafers siya kufikelela kwi-97.7% ngo-2030. (Umthombo weNgxelo: I-Future Think Tank)
1.3.Iibhetri: Iibhetri zePERC zilawula imarike, kwaye uphuhliso lweebhetri zohlobo lwe-n lutyhala umgangatho wemveliso.
Ikhonkco eliphakathi kwekhonkco leshishini le-photovoltaic libandakanya iiseli ze-photovoltaic kunye neemodyuli zeseli ze-photovoltaic.Ukusetyenzwa kwee-silicon wafers kwiiseli lelona nyathelo libalulekileyo ekuqondeni uguqulo lweefoto zombane.Kuthatha malunga namanyathelo asixhenxe ukusetyenzwa kweseli eqhelekileyo kwi-silicon wafer.Okokuqala, faka i-silicon wafer kwi-hydrofluoric acid ukuvelisa isakhiwo se-suede esifana nephiramidi kumphezulu wayo, ngokunciphisa ukubonakaliswa kokukhanya kwelanga kunye nokwandisa ukukhanya;okwesibini i-Phosphorus isasazwa kumphezulu wecala elinye le-silicon wafer ukwenza i-PN junction, kwaye umgangatho wayo uchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo ukusebenza kweseli;okwesithathu kukususa i-PN junction eyenziwe kwicala le-silicon wafer ngexesha lokusabalalisa ukuthintela ukujikeleza okufutshane kweseli;Uluhlu lwefilimu ye-silicon nitride lufakwe kwicala apho i-PN junction yenziwe ukunciphisa ukukhanya kokukhanya kwaye ngexesha elifanayo ukwandisa ukusebenza kakuhle;eyesihlanu kukuprinta i-electrodes yetsimbi ngaphambili nangasemva kwe-silicon wafer ukuqokelela abathwali abancinci abaveliswa yi-photovoltaics;Isekethe eprintiweyo kwinqanaba lokushicilela i-sintered kwaye yenziwe, kwaye ihlanganiswe ne-silicon wafer, oko kukuthi, iseli;ekugqibeleni, iiseli kunye nokuphumelela ezahlukeneyo zihlelwa.
Iiseli ze-crystal ze-silicon zihlala zenziwe ngee-silicon wafers njengee-substrates, kwaye zinokwahlulwa zibe ziiseli zodidi lwe-p kunye nohlobo lwe-n-type ngokohlobo lwee-silicon wafers.Phakathi kwazo, iiseli zohlobo lwe-n zinamandla okuguqula kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe zithatha indawo yeeseli zohlobo lwe-p kwiminyaka yakutshanje.Iiwafers ze-silicon zohlobo lwe-P zenziwe nge-doping silicon ene-boron, kunye ne-n-type yafers ye-silicon yenziwe nge-phosphorus.Ke ngoko, ukuxinana kwento ye-boron kuhlobo lwe-n-silicon wafer isezantsi, ngaloo ndlela inqanda ukudityaniswa kwe-boron-oxygen complexes, iphucula ubomi obuncinci bomthwali wezinto zesilicon, kwaye kwangaxeshanye, akukho foto-induation attenuation. ebhetrini.Ukongeza, i-n-uhlobo abathwali abambalwa yimingxuma, i-p-uhlobo lwabathwali abambalwa zii-electron, kunye ne-athomu yokubambisa i-athomu yokungcola kwemingxuma incinci kune-electrons.Ke ngoko, ixesha lokuphila elincinci le-n-uhlobo lweseli liphezulu kwaye izinga lokuguqulwa kweefoto zombane liphezulu.Ngokutsho kwedatha yebhubhoratri, umda ophezulu wokuguqulwa kokusebenza kweeseli ze-p-type yi-24.5%, kwaye ukuguqulwa kokusebenza kweeseli ze-n-type ukuya kwi-28.7%, ngoko ke iiseli ze-n-type zibonisa ulwalathiso lophuhliso lweteknoloji yexesha elizayo.Kwi-2021, iiseli ze-n-type (ikakhulukazi zibandakanya iiseli ze-heterojunction kunye neeseli ze-TOPCon) zineendleko eziphezulu, kwaye umlinganiselo wokuvelisa ubuninzi usemncinci.Isabelo semarike yangoku simalunga ne-3%, nto leyo iyafana naleyo ngo-2020.
Ngo-2021, ukuguqulwa kokusebenza kakuhle kweeseli ze-n-type kuya kuphuculwa kakhulu, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba kuya kubakho indawo yokuqhubela phambili kwezobuchwepheshe kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo.Kwi-2021, ukuveliswa okukhulu kweeseli ze-p-type monocrystalline kuya kusebenzisa iteknoloji ye-PERC, kwaye ukuguqulwa okusemgangathweni kuya kufikelela kwi-23.1%, ukwanda kweepesenti ze-0.3 xa kuthelekiswa ne-2020;ukusebenza kakuhle kokuguqulwa kweeseli ze-silicon ezimnyama ze-polycrystalline usebenzisa iteknoloji ye-PERC iya kufikelela kwi-21.0%, xa kuthelekiswa no-2020. Ukunyuka konyaka kweepesenti ze-0.2;I-polycrystalline emnyama ye-silicon yokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kweseli ayinamandla, ukuguqulwa kokusebenza ngo-2021 kuya kuba malunga ne-19.5%, kuphela ipesenti ye-0.1 ephezulu, kwaye indawo yokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwixesha elizayo iyancipha;umyinge wokuguqulwa kokusebenza kakuhle kweeseli ze-ingot monocrystalline PERC yi-22.4%, eyipesenti ye-0.7 yeepesenti ephantsi kuneeseli ze-PERC ze-monocrystalline;umyinge wokuguqulwa kokusebenza kakuhle kwe-n-type TOPCon iiseli zifikelela kwi-24%, kwaye umyinge wokuguqulwa kokusebenza kweeseli ze-heterojunction ufikelela kwi-24.2%, zombini ezo ziphuculwe kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa ne-2020, kunye nokuguqulwa kokuguqulwa kweeseli ze-IBC zifikelela kwi-24.2%.Ngophuhliso lwetekhnoloji kwixesha elizayo, iitekhnoloji zebhetri ezifana ne-TBC kunye ne-HBC nazo zinokuqhubeka ukwenza inkqubela.Kwixesha elizayo, ngokunciphisa iindleko zemveliso kunye nokuphuculwa kwesivuno, iibhetri zohlobo lwe-n ziya kuba yenye yeendlela eziphambili zophuhliso lweteknoloji yebhetri.
Ukususela kumbono wendlela yobuchwepheshe bebhetri, ukuhlaziywa okuphindaphindiweyo kobuchwepheshe bebhetri kuye kwahamba kakhulu kwi-BSF, i-PERC, i-TOPCon esekelwe kuphuculo lwe-PERC, kunye ne-HJT, iteknoloji entsha ephazamisa i-PERC;I-TOPCon inokudityaniswa ngakumbi ne-IBC ukwenza i-TBC, kwaye i-HJT inokudityaniswa ne-IBC ukuze ibe yi-HBC.Iiseli ze-P-type monocrystalline ikakhulu zisebenzisa iteknoloji ye-PERC, iiseli ze-polycrystalline ze-p zibandakanya iiseli ze-silicon ezimnyama ze-polycrystalline kunye neeseli ze-ingot monocrystalline, le yokugqibela ibhekisela ekongezwa kweekristale zembewu ye-monocrystalline ngesiseko senkqubo ye-polycrystalline ingot yesiqhelo, ukuqina kolwalathiso Emva koko, a i-silicon ingot yesikwere yenziwe, kwaye i-silicon wafer exutywe nekristale enye kunye ne-polycrystalline yenziwa ngoluhlu lweenkqubo zokucwangcisa.Ngenxa yokuba ngokusisiseko isebenzisa indlela yokulungiselela i-polycrystalline, ifakwe kudidi lweeseli ze-polycrystalline ze-p.Iiseli zohlobo lwe-n ikakhulu ziquka iiseli ze-TOPCon monocrystalline, iiseli ze-HJT monocrystalline kunye neeseli ze-IBC monocrystalline.Ngo-2021, imigca emitsha yokuvelisa ubuninzi iya kuhlala ilawulwa yimigca yokuvelisa iiseli ze-PERC, kwaye isabelo semarike yeeseli ze-PERC siya kunyuka ngakumbi ukuya kwi-91.2%.Njengoko imfuno yemveliso yeeprojekthi zangaphandle kunye nezasekhaya zigxile kwiimveliso ezisebenza ngokufanelekileyo, isabelo sentengiso yeebhetri ze-BSF siyakwehla ukusuka kwi-8.8% ukuya kwi-5% ngo-2021.
1.4.Iimodyuli: Iindleko zeeseli akhawunti inxalenye ephambili, kwaye amandla eemodyuli axhomekeke kwiiseli
Amanyathelo okuvelisa iimodyuli ze-photovoltaic ikakhulu zibandakanya ukudibanisa kweeseli kunye ne-lamination, kunye neeseli ze-akhawunti inxalenye enkulu yeendleko ezipheleleyo zemodyuli.Kuba i-voltage yangoku kunye ne-voltage yeseli enye incinci kakhulu, iiseli kufuneka zidityaniswe ngemivalo yebhasi.Apha, badityaniswe ngokulandelelana ukunyusa i-voltage, kwaye emva koko baqhagamshelwe ngokuhambelanayo ukufumana i-high current, emva koko iglasi ye-photovoltaic, i-EVA okanye i-POE, i-bettery Sheet, i-EVA okanye i-POE, i-back sheet itywinwe kwaye ubushushu bucinezelwe ngendlela ethile. , kwaye ekugqibeleni ikhuselwe isakhelo se-aluminium kunye ne-silicone edge yokutywina.Ngokombono wokwakhiwa kweendleko zecandelo, iindleko zemathiriyeli zibalelwa kwi-75%, ezithatha indawo ephambili, zilandelwa yindleko yokuvelisa, iindleko zokusebenza kunye neendleko zabasebenzi.Ixabiso lezinto eziphathekayo likhokelwa yindleko yeeseli.Ngokwezibhengezo ezivela kwiinkampani ezininzi, iiseli ze-akhawunti malunga ne-2/3 yeendleko ezipheleleyo zeemodyuli ze-photovoltaic.
Iimodyuli ze-Photovoltaic zihlala zihlulwe ngokohlobo lweseli, ubungakanani, kunye nobuninzi.Kukho umahluko kumandla eemodyuli ezahlukeneyo, kodwa zonke zikwinqanaba lokunyuka.Amandla luphawu oluphambili lweemodyuli ze-photovoltaic, ezimele amandla emodyuli ukuguqula amandla elanga kumbane.Inokubonwa kwizibalo zamandla eentlobo ezahlukeneyo zeemodyuli ze-photovoltaic ukuba xa ubukhulu kunye nenani leeseli kwimodyuli zifana, amandla emodyuli yi-n-uhlobo lwe-crystal eyodwa> p-uhlobo lwe-crystal eyodwa> i-polycrystalline;Ubukhulu obukhulu kunye nobuninzi, amandla amakhulu emodyuli;kwi-TOPCon iimodyuli zekristale enye kunye neemodyuli ze-heterojunction zenkcazo efanayo, amandla okugqibela makhulu kuneyangaphambili.Ngokutsho koqikelelo lwe-CPIA, amandla emodyuli aya kunyuka nge-5-10W ngonyaka kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo.Ukongeza, ukupakishwa kwemodyuli kuya kuzisa ilahleko ethile yamandla, ngakumbi kubandakanya ukulahleka kwamehlo kunye nokulahleka kombane.Eyangaphambili ibangelwa ukuhanjiswa kunye nokungahambi kakuhle kwezinto zokupakisha ezifana neglasi ye-photovoltaic kunye ne-EVA, kwaye okokugqibela kubhekisela ekusebenziseni iiseli zelanga kwichungechunge.Ilahleko yesekethe ebangelwa ukuchasana kweribhoni ye-welding kunye nebhasi yebhasi ngokwayo, kunye nelahleko engafanelekanga yangoku ebangelwa uxhulumaniso oluhambelanayo lweeseli, ilahleko epheleleyo yamandla e-akhawunti ezimbini malunga ne-8%.
1.5.I-Photovoltaic efakwe amandla: Imigaqo-nkqubo yamazwe ahlukeneyo iqhutywa ngokucacileyo, kwaye kukho indawo enkulu yomthamo omtsha ofakiweyo kwixesha elizayo.
Ihlabathi liye lafikelela kwimvumelwano malunga nokukhutshwa kwe-zero phantsi kwenjongo yokukhusela indalo, kwaye uqoqosho lweeprojekthi ze-photovoltaic eziphezulu ziye zavela ngokuthe ngcembe.Amazwe avavanya ngenkuthalo uphuhliso lokuveliswa kwamandla ahlaziyekayo.Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, amazwe kwihlabathi jikelele enze izibophelelo zokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni.Uninzi lweegesi ezinkulu ezikhupha irhasi yegreenhouse ziye zaqulunqa iithagethi ezihambelanayo zamandla ahlaziyekayo, kwaye umthamo ofakiweyo wamandla ahlaziyekayo mkhulu.Ngokusekelwe kwi-1.5 ℃ ithagethi yokulawula ukushisa, i-IRENA iqikelela ukuba amandla ombane ahlaziyiweyo afakwe emhlabeni wonke aya kufikelela kwi-10.8TW ngo-2030. Ukongezelela, ngokutsho kwedatha ye-WOODMac, ixabiso lezinga lombane (LCOE) lokuveliswa kwamandla elanga eChina, eIndiya, I-United States kunye namanye amazwe sele ephantsi kunawona mandla efosili anexabiso eliphantsi, kwaye aya kuhla ngakumbi kwixesha elizayo.Ukukhuthazwa okusebenzayo kwemigaqo-nkqubo kumazwe ahlukeneyo kunye noqoqosho lwemveliso yamandla e-photovoltaic kuye kwakhokelela ekwandeni okuzinzileyo kwi-cumulative efakwe kwi-photovoltaics kwihlabathi kunye ne-China kwiminyaka yamuva.Ukususela kwi-2012 ukuya kwi-2021, i-cumulative efakwe amandla e-photovoltaics kwihlabathi iya kwanda ukusuka kwi-104.3GW ukuya kwi-849.5GW, kunye nomthamo ofakwe kwi-photovoltaics e-China uya kwanda ukusuka kwi-6.7GW ukuya kwi-307GW, ukwanda kwamaxesha angama-44.Ukongeza, amandla e-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa eTshayina angaphezulu kwe-20% yomthamo ofakiweyo wehlabathi.Ngo-2021, amandla e-photovoltaic e-China esanda kufakwa yi-53GW, ethatha malunga ne-40% yomthamo omtsha wehlabathi.Oku kubangelwa ubukhulu becala ngenxa yobuninzi kunye nokusabalalisa okufanayo kwemithombo yamandla okukhanya e-China, ukuphuhliswa kakuhle phezulu nasezantsi, kunye nenkxaso eqinile yemigaqo-nkqubo yelizwe.Ngeli xesha, i-China idlale indima enkulu ekuveliseni amandla e-photovoltaic, kwaye umthamo ofakelweyo ofakelweyo ubalwe ngaphantsi kwe-6.5%.ixhume kwi-36.14%.
Ngokusekwe kolu hlalutyo lungentla, i-CPIA inike uqikelelo lofakelo olutsha lwe-photovoltaic ukusuka kwi-2022 ukuya kwi-2030 kwihlabathi liphela.Kuqikelelwa ukuba phantsi kweemeko zombini ezinethemba kunye nokugcinwa kwezinto, umthamo osanda kufakwa kwihlabathi ngo-2030 uya kuba ngama-366 kunye ne-315GW ngokulandelelana, kunye nomthamo osanda kufakwa wase-China uya kuba yi-128. , 105GW.Ngezantsi siza kuqikelela imfuno yepolysilicon ngokusekwe kwisikali somthamo osanda kufakwa unyaka nonyaka.
1.6.Ukufuna uqikelelo lwepolysilicon yezicelo ze-photovoltaic
Ukusukela ngo-2022 ukuya ku-2030, ngokusekwe kuqikelelo lwe-CPIA lofakelo lwe-PV olutsha olwandisiweyo lwehlabathi phantsi kweemeko ezibonisa ithemba kunye nezilondolozayo, imfuno yepolysilicon yezicelo ze-PV inokuqikelelwa.Iiseli linyathelo eliphambili lokuqonda uguqulo lwe-photoelectric, kwaye ii-silicon wafers zisisiseko semathiriyeli ekrwada yeeseli kunye nomlambo othe ngqo wepolysilicon, ngoko ke yinxalenye ebalulekileyo yoqikelelo lwemfuno yepolysilicon.Inani elilinganisiweyo lamaqhekeza ngekhilogram yeentonga ze-silicon kunye neengots zingabalwa ukusuka kwinani leengcezu ngeekhilogram kunye nesabelo semarike yeentonga ze-silicon kunye neengots.Emva koko, ngokwamandla kunye nesabelo sentengiso yee-silicon wafers zobukhulu obahlukeneyo, amandla anobunzima bee-silicon wafers anokufumaneka, kwaye ke inani elifunekayo le-silicon wafers linokuqikelelwa ngokomthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa.Okulandelayo, ubunzima bezintonga zesilicon ezifunekayo kunye nee-ingots zinokufunyanwa ngokobudlelwane bobungakanani phakathi kwenani lee-silicon wafers kunye nenani elinobunzima lezintonga zesilicon kunye nee-ingots zesilicon ngekhilogram.Ngokubhekele phaya kudityaniswe nobunzima bokusetyenziswa kwe-silicon yeentonga ze-silicon/i-silicon ingots, imfuno yepolysilicon yomthamo we-photovoltaic esandula ukufakwa inokufumaneka ekugqibeleni.Ngokweziphumo zengqikelelo, imfuno yehlabathi jikelele ye-polysilicon yofakelo olutsha lwe-photovoltaic kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo iya kuqhubeka nokunyuka, ukunyuka kwi-2027, kwaye iyancipha kancinci kwiminyaka emithathu ezayo.Kuqikelelwa ukuba phantsi kweemeko ezinethemba kunye nezilondolozayo kwi-2025, imfuno yonyaka yehlabathi ye-polysilicon yofakelo lwe-photovoltaic iya kuba yi-1,108,900 yeetoni kunye ne-907,800 yeetoni ngokulandelanayo, kunye nemfuno yehlabathi jikelele ye-polysilicon yezicelo ze-photovoltaic kwi-2030 iya kuba yi-1,042, i-100 yeetoni ezilindelekileyo. ., iitoni ezingama-896 900.Ngokutsho kweTshayinaUbungakanani bomthamo we-photovoltaic ofakiweyo wehlabathi,Imfuno yaseTshayina yepolysilicon yokusetyenziswa kwe-photovoltaic ngo-2025Kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-369,600 yeetoni kunye ne-302,600 yeetoni ngokulandelelanayo phantsi kweemeko ezibonisa ithemba kunye ne-Conservative, kunye ne-739,300 yeetoni kunye ne-605,200 yeetoni phesheya ngokulandelelana.
2, Imfuno yokuphela kwe-Semiconductor: Umlinganiselo uncinci kakhulu kunemfuno kwintsimi ye-photovoltaic, kwaye ukukhula kwexesha elizayo kunokulindelwa
Ukongeza ekwenzeni iiseli ze-photovoltaic, i-polysilicon ingasetyenziselwa njengento ekrwada yokwenza ii-chips kwaye isetyenziswe kwintsimi ye-semiconductor, enokuthi ihlulwe kwimveliso yemoto, i-electronics ye-industrial, unxibelelwano lombane, izixhobo zasekhaya kunye nezinye iinkalo.Inkqubo esuka kwi-polysilicon ukuya kwi-chip yahlulwe kakhulu ibe ngamanyathelo amathathu.Okokuqala, i-polysilicon itsalwa kwii-ingots ze-silicon ze-monocrystalline, kwaye emva koko inqunyulwe ibe ngamaqhekeza amancinci e-silicon.Ii-Silicon wafers ziveliswa ngothotho lwemisebenzi yokusila, yokuthambisa kunye nokupholisha., eyona nto isisiseko semathiriyeli ye-semiconductor.Okokugqibela, isiqwenga se-silicon siyasikwa kwaye i-laser ikrolwe kwizakhiwo ezahlukeneyo zesekethe ukwenza iimveliso ze-chip ezineempawu ezithile.Iiwafers zesilicon eziqhelekileyo ikakhulu ziquka iiwafers ezikhazimlisiweyo, ii-epitaxial wafers kunye nee-SOI wafers.I-wafer epholisiweyo sisixhobo sokuvelisa i-chip esine-flatness ephezulu efunyenwe ngokupolisha isiqwenga se-silicon ukususa umaleko owonakele kumphezulu, onokusetyenziswa ngokuthe ngqo ukwenza iitshiphusi, ii-epitaxial wafers kunye ne-SOI silicon wafers.Ii-wafers ze-Epitaxial zifunyanwa ngokukhula kwe-epitaxial yeewafers ezipholisiweyo, ngelixa ii-wafers ze-silicon ze-SOI zenziwe nge-bonding okanye i-ion implantation kwi-wafer substrates epholisiweyo, kwaye inkqubo yokulungiselela inzima.
Ngemfuno yepolysilicon kwicala le-semiconductor ngo-2021, idityaniswe nengqikelelo ye-arhente yezinga lokukhula kweshishini le-semiconductor kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, imfuno yepolysilicon kwibala le-semiconductor ukusuka ngo-2022 ukuya ku-2025 inokuqikelelwa ngokuqikelelwa.Ngo-2021, imveliso ye-electronic-grade polysilicon iya kwenza malunga ne-6% yemveliso ye-polysilicon iyonke, kunye ne-solar-grade polysilicon kunye ne-silicon granular iya kwenza malunga ne-94%.Uninzi lwe-polysilicon yomgangatho we-elektroniki isetyenziswa kwintsimi ye-semiconductor, kwaye enye i-polysilicon isetyenziswa ngokusisiseko kwishishini le-photovoltaic..Ngoko ke, kunokucingelwa ukuba inani lepolysilicon esetyenziswe kwishishini le-semiconductor ngo-2021 li malunga neetoni ezingama-37,000.Ukongeza, ngokwezinga lokukhula kwekhompawundi elizayo kwishishini le-semiconductor elixelwe kwangaphambili yi-FortuneBusiness Insights, imfuno ye-polysilicon yokusetyenziswa kwe-semiconductor iya kunyuka ngesantya sonyaka se-8.6% ukusuka ku-2022 ukuya ku-2025. Kuqikelelwa ukuba ngo-2025, imfuno i-polysilicon kwintsimi ye-semiconductor iya kuba malunga neetoni ezingama-51,500.(Umthombo wengxelo: ITanki yokucinga yekamva)
3, Ukungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle kwePolysilicon: ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe kudlula kakhulu ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle, kunye neJamani kunye neMalaysia zibalelwa kwinani eliphezulu
Ngo-2021, malunga ne-18.63% yemfuno ye-polysilicon yase-China iya kuvela kwizinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle, kwaye isikali sokungeniswa ngaphandle singaphezulu kakhulu kwisikali sokuthunyelwa ngaphandle.Ukususela ngo-2017 ukuya ku-2021, indlela yokungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-polysilicon ilawulwa yimpahla ephuma kumazwe angaphandle, enokuthi ibe ngenxa yemfuno ephantsi yomlambo ye-photovoltaic industry ephuhliswe ngokukhawuleza kwiminyaka yamuva nje, kunye nemfuno yayo ye-polysilicon akhawunti ngaphezu kwe-94% ye imfuno epheleleyo;Ukongeza, inkampani ayikayifumani itekhnoloji yokuvelisa i-polysilicon ephezulu ye-elektroniki, ngoko ke enye i-polysilicon efunwa lishishini lesekethe edibeneyo isafuna ukuthembela kwizinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.Ngokutsho kwedatha yeSilicon Industry Branch, umthamo wokungenisa uqhubekile ukwehla ngo-2019 kunye no-2020. Isizathu esisisiseko sokuhla kwe-polysilicon evela kumazwe angaphandle ngo-2019 yayikukunyuka okukhulu komthamo wemveliso, oye wenyuka ukusuka kwiitoni ezingama-388,000 ngo-2018 ukuya kwiitoni ezingama-452,000. kwi-2019. Ngelo xesha, i-OCI, i-REC, i-HANWHA Ezinye iinkampani zaphesheya kwezilwandle, njengezinye iinkampani zangaphandle, zihoxise kwi-polysilicon industry ngenxa yokulahlekelwa, ngoko ke ukuxhomekeka kokungenisa kwepolysilicon kuphantsi kakhulu;nangona umthamo wokuvelisa unganyukanga kwi-2020, impembelelo yobhubhane ibangele ukulibaziseka ekwakhiweni kweeprojekthi ze-photovoltaic, kwaye inani le-polysilicon imiyalelo liye lancipha ngexesha elifanayo.Ngo-2021, imarike ye-photovoltaic yaseChina iya kukhula ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ukusetyenziswa okubonakalayo kwe-polysilicon kuya kufikelela kwiitoni ezingama-613,000, ukuqhuba umthamo wokungenisa ukuba ubuyele kwakhona.Kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo, umthamo wokungenisa we-polysilicon yaseTshayina ube phakathi kwe-90,000 kunye ne-140,000 yeetoni, malunga neetoni ze-103,800 ngo-2021.
Ukuthengwa kwe-polysilicon yaseChina ubukhulu becala ivela eJamani, eMalaysia, eJapan naseTaiwan, eChina, kunye nenani elithengiweyo elisuka kula mazwe mane liza kubalelwa kwi-90.51% ngo-2021. Malunga ne-45% ye-polysilicon yaseTshayina evela eJamani, i-26% evela eMalaysia, I-13.5% evela eJapan, kunye ne-6% evela eTaiwan.IJamani iphethe i-polysilicon enkulu yehlabathi i-WACKER, eyona mthombo omkhulu we-polysilicon yaphesheya, i-akhawunti ye-12.7% yomthamo wemveliso yehlabathi jikelele ngo-2021;IMalaysia inenani elikhulu lemigca yokuvelisa i-polysilicon evela kwiNkampani ye-OCI yaseMzantsi Korea, ephuma kumgca wokuqala wemveliso eMalaysia we-TOKUYAMA, inkampani yaseJapan efunyenwe yi-OCI.Kukho iifektri kunye neefektri ezithile ezathi i-OCI yasuka eMzantsi Korea yaya eMalaysia.Isizathu sokufuduka kukuba iMalaysia ibonelela ngendawo yefektri yasimahla kwaye iindleko zombane zingaphantsi kwesinye kwisithathu kunezo zaseMzantsi Korea;I-Japan kunye ne-Taiwan, i-China ine-TOKUYAMA, i-GET kunye nezinye iinkampani, ezithatha isabelo esikhulu semveliso ye-polysilicon.Indawo.Ngo-2021, imveliso ye-polysilicon iya kuba yi-492,000 yeetoni, apho amandla e-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa kunye nemfuno yokuvelisa i-chip iya kuba yi-206,400 yeetoni kunye ne-1,500 yeetoni ngokulandelelanayo, kwaye i-284,100 yeetoni eziseleyo ziya kusetyenziswa ikakhulu kwi-processing ye-downstream kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe phesheya.Kumakhonkco asezantsi e-polysilicon, ii-wafers ze-silicon, iiseli kunye neemodyuli zithunyelwa ngaphandle, phakathi kwazo ukuthunyelwa kweemodyuli kubalaseleyo.Ngo-2021, iibhiliyoni ezi-4.64 zee-silicon wafers kunye ne-3.2 yeebhiliyoni zeeseli ze-photovoltaic zazisele.ithunyelwe kumazwe angaphandleukusuka e-China, kunye nokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-22.6GW kunye ne-10.3GW ngokulandelanayo, kunye nokuthunyelwa kweemodyuli ze-photovoltaic yi-98.5GW, kunye neemveliso ezimbalwa kakhulu.Ngokumalunga nokubunjwa kwexabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle, ukuthunyelwa kwemodyuli ngo-2021 kuya kufikelela kwi-US $ 24.61 yezigidigidi, kubalwa i-86%, ilandelwa yi-silicon wafers kunye neebhetri.Ngo-2021, imveliso yehlabathi jikelele yee-silicon wafers, iiseli ze-photovoltaic, kunye neemodyuli ze-photovoltaic ziya kufikelela kwi-97.3%, i-85.1%, kunye ne-82.3%, ngokulandelanayo.Kulindeleke ukuba imboni ye-photovoltaic yehlabathi jikelele iya kuqhubeka igxininise e-China kwiminyaka emithathu ezayo, kwaye imveliso kunye nomthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle kwekhonkco ngalinye liya kuba lukhulu.Ngoko ke, kuqikelelwa ukuba ukusuka kwi-2022 ukuya kwi-2025, inani le-polysilicon esetyenziselwa ukucubungula kunye nokuvelisa iimveliso ezisezantsi kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuya kwanda ngokuthe ngcembe.Kuqikelelwa ngokususa imveliso yaphesheya kwimfuno yepolysilicon yaphesheya.Ngo-2025, i-polysilicon eveliswa ngokucutshungulwa kwiimveliso ezisezantsi kuya kuqikelelwa ukuthumela iiToni ezingama-583,000 kumazwe angaphandle ukusuka eTshayina.
4, Isishwankathelo kunye ne-Outlook
Imfuno yepolysilicon yehlabathi jikelele igxininiswe kakhulu kwintsimi ye-photovoltaic, kwaye imfuno kwintsimi ye-semiconductor ayingomyalelo wobukhulu.Imfuno ye-polysilicon iqhutywa lufakelo lwe-photovoltaic, kwaye ihanjiswa ngokuthe ngcembe kwi-polysilicon ngekhonkco ye-photovoltaic modules-cell-wafer, ivelisa imfuno yayo.Kwixesha elizayo, kunye nokwandiswa kwe-global photovoltaic umthamo ofakiweyo, imfuno ye-polysilicon inethemba ngokubanzi.Ngethemba, i-China kunye naphesheya kweelwandle ezisanda kwandisa ukufakwa kwe-PV okubangela imfuno ye-polysilicon ngo-2025 iya kuba yi-36.96GW kunye ne-73.93GW ngokulandelanayo, kwaye imfuno phantsi kweemeko zolondolozo nayo iya kufikelela kwi-30.24GW kunye ne-60.49GW ngokulandelelana.Ngo-2021, unikezelo lwepolysilicon yehlabathi jikelele kunye nemfuno iya kuba nzima, okukhokelela kumaxabiso aphezulu e-polysilicon yehlabathi.Le meko ingaqhubeka de kube ngu-2022, kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe iguqukele kwinqanaba lokubonelela ngokukhululekile emva kwe-2023. Kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2020, impembelelo yobhubhane yaqala ukuba buthathaka, kwaye ukwanda kwemveliso ezantsi kwaqhuba imfuno yepolysilicon, kwaye ezinye iinkampani eziphambili zicwangcisiwe. ukwandisa imveliso.Nangona kunjalo, umjikelo wokwandisa iminyaka engaphezu kweyodwa enesiqingatha ubangele ukukhululwa kwamandla okuvelisa ekupheleni kwe-2021 kunye ne-2022, okubangele ukunyuka kwe-4.24% ngo-2021. Kukho i-gap yokubonelela ngeetoni ezili-10,000, ngoko ke amaxabiso anyukile. ngokukhawuleza.Kuqikelelwa ukuba kwi-2022, phantsi kweemeko ezithembayo kunye nezilondolozayo ze-photovoltaic efakwe umthamo, i-gap yokubonelela kunye nemfuno iya kuba yi-156.500 yeetoni kunye neetoni ze-2,400 ngokulandelanayo, kwaye ukunikezelwa ngokubanzi kuya kuba kwimeko yokubonelela ngokukhawuleza.Ngo-2023 nangaphaya, iiprojekthi ezintsha eziqale ukwakhiwa ekupheleni kuka-2021 kwaye ekuqaleni kuka-2022 ziya kuqalisa imveliso kwaye zifezekise ukunyuswa kwamandla emveliso.Unikezelo kunye nemfuno ziya kuthi chu kancinci kancinci, kwaye amaxabiso anokuba phantsi koxinzelelo olusezantsi.Ekulandeleni, ingqalelo kufuneka ihlawulwe kwimpembelelo yemfazwe yaseRashiya-ye-Ukrainian kwipatheni yamandla ehlabathi jikelele, enokutshintsha isicwangciso sehlabathi jikelele somthamo we-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa, eya kuchaphazela imfuno yepolysilicon.
(Eli nqaku lenzelwe kuphela ireferensi yabathengi be-UrbanMines kwaye alimeli naliphi na icebiso lotyalo-mali)